报告承办单位:数学与统计学院

报告题目: 疾病传播动力学与最终流行规模分析

报告人姓名: Yuan Yuan  ( 袁沅）

报告人所在单位:加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学

报告人职称: 教授，博士生导师

报告时间:北京时间2021年5月27日（星期四）上午8：30-9:30

腾讯会议号码:688 676 543

报告人简介：袁沅教授 1984年于武汉大学获得学士学位，1988年于中南大学获得硕士学位，2002年于加拿大西安大略大学（University of Western Ontario）获得博士学位。2002年荣获NSERC（加拿大国家自然科学基金）资助在滑铁卢大学(University of Waterloo)做短暂博士后研究，随后于2002年9月起受聘于加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学（Memorial University of Newfoundland）至今，现为该校数学与统计系终身正教授和博士生导师。袁教授主要研究方向包括非线性动力系统的稳定性及分支分析、时滞微分方程及其在神经网络和生物数学等的应用、微分方程的符号及数值计算方法。现已在SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, Journal of Mathematical Biology, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Journal of Differential Equations, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems等主要应用数学及生物数学杂志发表论文六十多篇。研究成果深受同行好评及引用，研究一直受到加拿大NSERC的资助。

摘要：We propose two compartment models to study the disease transmission dynamics, then apply the models to the current COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the potential impact of the interventions, and try to provide insights into the future health care demand. Starting with an SEAIQR model by combining the effect from exposure, asymptomatic and quarantine, then extending the model to the one with ages below and above 65 years old, and classify the infectious individuals according to their severity, we focus our analysis on each model with and without vital dynamics. In the models with vital dynamics, we study the dynamical properties including the global stability of the disease free equilibrium and the existence of endemic equilibrium, with respect to the basic reproduction number. Whereas in the models without vital dynamics, we address the final epidemic size rigorously, which is one of

the common but difficult questions regarding an epidemic. Finally, we apply our models to estimate the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size of disease by using the data of COVID-19 conrmed cases in Canada and Newfoundland & Labrador province.